Nate Silver on how Trump could impact turnout

[nolanvt]

among GOP voters.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ele ... r-the-gop/


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[UpstateSCHokie]

Right....because Nate Silver has had such a stellar track record when it comes to predicting anything Trump.

http://dailycaller.com/2016/05/04/7-tim ... ald-trump/

[nolanvt]

Right....because Nate Silver has had such a stellar track record when it comes to predicting anything Trump.

http://dailycaller.com/2016/05/04/7-tim ... ald-trump/

Before I respond, is it your position that Silver and almost every single poll are wrong?


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[BigDave]

My BS detector went off:

Democrats are seeing very strong early-voting numbers in Virginia

And how exactly would he know that? We don't have party registration in Virginia.

Maybe they do in Nevada and so you can see how many registered Democrats vs registered Republicans have voted early but here we don't have that.

Republicans are going to retain the House - there just aren't enough competitive seats for the democrats to take over.

The Senate is much more dicey as the Republicans are defending the seats picked up in a really good year. Illinois, Wisconsin, and Indiana are probably all democrat pickups, for a 51-49 Democrat majority.

[nolanvt]

My BS detector went off:

Democrats are seeing very strong early-voting numbers in Virginia

And how exactly would he know that? We don't have party registration in Virginia.

Maybe they do in Nevada and so you can see how many registered Democrats vs registered Republicans have voted early but here we don't have that.

Republicans are going to retain the House - there just aren't enough competitive seats for the democrats to take over.

The Senate is much more dicey as the Republicans are defending the seats picked up in a really good year. Illinois, Wisconsin, and Indiana are probably all democrat pickups, for a 51-49 Democrat majority.

They have people on the ground tracking these things. At the location I voted, a Dem asked me on my way in if I wanted a Dem ballot voting guide (declined). Said Dem asked me on my way out if I'd like to share who I voted for - didn't mind telling him Gary Johnson. The GOP guy was sitting on his hands and didn't appear to be that active.


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[Major Kong]

among GOP voters.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ele ... r-the-gop/


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Fringe source.

[Attila T Hun]

LOL..And the Dems are climbing over each other to get to the polls to vote for Hillary...As evidenced by the large crowds she is pulling in.

[nolanvt]

LOL..And the Dems are climbing over each other to get to the polls to vote for Hillary...As evidenced by the large crowds she is pulling in.

Has there been analysis conducted on the effects of voter turnout and crowd size you could link to me? Thanks.


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[HokieHam]

Trump is a lock. This is unlike any other election. Polls are all skewed to favor by over-polling Dumbs........He's going to win in a landslide. BOOK IT!

[USN_Hokie]

My BS detector went off:

Democrats are seeing very strong early-voting numbers in Virginia

And how exactly would he know that? We don't have party registration in Virginia.

Maybe they do in Nevada and so you can see how many registered Democrats vs registered Republicans have voted early but here we don't have that.

Republicans are going to retain the House - there just aren't enough competitive seats for the democrats to take over.

The Senate is much more dicey as the Republicans are defending the seats picked up in a really good year. Illinois, Wisconsin, and Indiana are probably all democrat pickups, for a 51-49 Democrat majority.

They have people on the ground tracking these things. At the location I voted, a Dem asked me on my way in if I wanted a Dem ballot voting guide (declined). Said Dem asked me on my way out if I'd like to share who I voted for - didn't mind telling him Gary Johnson. The GOP guy was sitting on his hands and didn't appear to be that active.


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That sounds sooper scientific.

[nolanvt]

My BS detector went off:

Democrats are seeing very strong early-voting numbers in Virginia

And how exactly would he know that? We don't have party registration in Virginia.

Maybe they do in Nevada and so you can see how many registered Democrats vs registered Republicans have voted early but here we don't have that.

Republicans are going to retain the House - there just aren't enough competitive seats for the democrats to take over.

The Senate is much more dicey as the Republicans are defending the seats picked up in a really good year. Illinois, Wisconsin, and Indiana are probably all democrat pickups, for a 51-49 Democrat majority.

They have people on the ground tracking these things. At the location I voted, a Dem asked me on my way in if I wanted a Dem ballot voting guide (declined). Said Dem asked me on my way out if I'd like to share who I voted for - didn't mind telling him Gary Johnson. The GOP guy was sitting on his hands and didn't appear to be that active.


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That sounds sooper scientific.

Well, that's part of how campaigns with good ground games track these things. The scientific part is controlling the data for various factors (including prior history accuracy).

[USN_Hokie]

My BS detector went off:

Democrats are seeing very strong early-voting numbers in Virginia

And how exactly would he know that? We don't have party registration in Virginia.

Maybe they do in Nevada and so you can see how many registered Democrats vs registered Republicans have voted early but here we don't have that.

Republicans are going to retain the House - there just aren't enough competitive seats for the democrats to take over.

The Senate is much more dicey as the Republicans are defending the seats picked up in a really good year. Illinois, Wisconsin, and Indiana are probably all democrat pickups, for a 51-49 Democrat majority.

They have people on the ground tracking these things. At the location I voted, a Dem asked me on my way in if I wanted a Dem ballot voting guide (declined). Said Dem asked me on my way out if I'd like to share who I voted for - didn't mind telling him Gary Johnson. The GOP guy was sitting on his hands and didn't appear to be that active.


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That sounds sooper scientific.

Well, that's part of how campaigns with good ground games track these things. The scientific part is controlling the data for various factors (including prior history accuracy).

Are you trying to tell me that Nate Silver uses data provided to him by political campaigns? Your anecdote has nothing to do with scientific polling.

[nolanvt]

Are you trying to tell me that Nate Silver uses data provided to him by political campaigns?

I don't know what he uses. You need to direct that question to him.

Your anecdote has nothing to do with scientific polling.

I have not opined on the early voting numbers themselves. My response to Dave had to do with various methods in how campaigns track things like early turnout. They go to polling places, place calls, go door-to-door and gather as much info as possible.

[USN_Hokie]

Are you trying to tell me that Nate Silver uses data provided to him by political campaigns?

I don't know what he uses. You need to direct that question to him.

Your anecdote has nothing to do with scientific polling.

I have not opined on the early voting numbers themselves. My response to Dave had to do with various methods in how campaigns track things like early turnout. They go to polling places, place calls, go door-to-door and gather as much info as possible.

Yeah that's called exit polling, and from your description...informal (sloppy) exit polling. I'm not aware of any public pollsters doing early voting exit polling...and trying to get a statistically relevant sample size of early voters using phone interviews doesn't sound efficacious either. You must know something I don't.

[nolanvt]

Are you trying to tell me that Nate Silver uses data provided to him by political campaigns?

I don't know what he uses. You need to direct that question to him.

Your anecdote has nothing to do with scientific polling.

I have not opined on the early voting numbers themselves. My response to Dave had to do with various methods in how campaigns track things like early turnout. They go to polling places, place calls, go door-to-door and gather as much info as possible.

Yeah that's called exit polling, and from your description...informal (sloppy) exit polling. I'm not aware of any public pollsters doing early voting exit polling...and trying to get a statistically relevant sample size of early voters using phone interviews doesn't sound efficacious either. You must know something I don't.

That's because you're attempting to assign assertions to me that I haven't made.


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[USN_Hokie]

Are you trying to tell me that Nate Silver uses data provided to him by political campaigns?

I don't know what he uses. You need to direct that question to him.

Your anecdote has nothing to do with scientific polling.

I have not opined on the early voting numbers themselves. My response to Dave had to do with various methods in how campaigns track things like early turnout. They go to polling places, place calls, go door-to-door and gather as much info as possible.

Yeah that's called exit polling, and from your description...informal (sloppy) exit polling. I'm not aware of any public pollsters doing early voting exit polling...and trying to get a statistically relevant sample size of early voters using phone interviews doesn't sound efficacious either. You must know something I don't.

That's because you're attempting to assign assertions to me that I haven't made.


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You purported to provide an explanation for Dave's puzzlement at a statement which you now call an assertion you haven't made. So, some dude asked you questions and tried to throw campaign literature at you while you threw your vote away...because...reasons, got it. Sorry to interrupt your episode of underpants gnome logic.

[nolanvt]

You purported to provide an explanation for Dave's puzzlement at a statement which you now call an assertion you haven't made. So, some dude asked you questions and tried to throw campaign literature at you while you threw your vote away...because...reasons, got it. Sorry to interrupt your episode of underpants gnome logic.

Yes, Dave asked how could anyone gauge turnout in VA given that we don't register by party. I responded that campaigns (and this isn't some new phenomenon) send people out to locations (with a personal anecdote), and they also place calls, go door to door, etc. As all of this is going on, campaigns are analyzing the data and controlling for various factors. This is pretty basic Voter Turnout 101 stuff that all campaigns do.

Glad we got that straightened out.


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[HokieHam]

You purported to provide an explanation for Dave's puzzlement at a statement which you now call an assertion you haven't made. So, some dude asked you questions and tried to throw campaign literature at you while you threw your vote away...because...reasons, got it. Sorry to interrupt your episode of underpants gnome logic.

Yes, Dave asked how could anyone gauge turnout in VA given that we don't register by party. I responded that campaigns (and this isn't some new phenomenon) send people out to locations (with a personal anecdote), and they also place calls, go door to door, etc. As all of this is going on, campaigns are analyzing the data and controlling for various factors. This is pretty basic Voter Turnout 101 stuff that all campaigns do.

Glad we got that straightened out.


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...and glad to point that that data is flawed. Especially when Dumbs using exit poll data pronounced Kerry won the election.......even to the point of a staffer calling him Mr. President......

[USN_Hokie]

You purported to provide an explanation for Dave's puzzlement at a statement which you now call an assertion you haven't made. So, some dude asked you questions and tried to throw campaign literature at you while you threw your vote away...because...reasons, got it. Sorry to interrupt your episode of underpants gnome logic.

Yes, Dave asked how could anyone gauge turnout in VA given that we don't register by party. I responded that campaigns (and this isn't some new phenomenon) send people out to locations (with a personal anecdote), and they also place calls, go door to door, etc. As all of this is going on, campaigns are analyzing the data and controlling for various factors. This is pretty basic Voter Turnout 101 stuff that all campaigns do.

Glad we got that straightened out.


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Again, that's completely irrelevant to the discussion, but thanks. Instead of reading your story, we could have just clicked on the hyperlink provided to see that this is an assumption based off of the number of absentee ballots turned in from NOVA. They don't know if who these people are casting their ballots for...they might even be people voting for the burnt out pothead.

[absolutvt03]

My BS detector went off:

Democrats are seeing very strong early-voting numbers in Virginia

And how exactly would he know that? We don't have party registration in Virginia.

Maybe they do in Nevada and so you can see how many registered Democrats vs registered Republicans have voted early but here we don't have that.

Republicans are going to retain the House - there just aren't enough competitive seats for the democrats to take over.

The Senate is much more dicey as the Republicans are defending the seats picked up in a really good year. Illinois, Wisconsin, and Indiana are probably all democrat pickups, for a 51-49 Democrat majority.

Here's the link he's citing in that comment:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/vi ... story.html

Voters in Northern Virginia are casting early absentee ballots at far higher rates than they did in the 2012 presidential election, a reflection of the surge of interest in the 2016 contest that could benefit Democrat Hillary Clinton over Republican Donald Trump.

In Fairfax County, the state’s largest jurisdiction, officials anticipate that 150,000 people will have cast absentee ballots by Nov. 8, a nearly 75 percent increase over the 87,000 ballots cast four years ago.

So the assumption seems to be that a traditional Democratic leaning area has cast more absentee ballots.

[ip_law-hokie]

You purported to provide an explanation for Dave's puzzlement at a statement which you now call an assertion you haven't made. So, some dude asked you questions and tried to throw campaign literature at you while you threw your vote away...because...reasons, got it. Sorry to interrupt your episode of underpants gnome logic.

Yes, Dave asked how could anyone gauge turnout in VA given that we don't register by party. I responded that campaigns (and this isn't some new phenomenon) send people out to locations (with a personal anecdote), and they also place calls, go door to door, etc. As all of this is going on, campaigns are analyzing the data and controlling for various factors. This is pretty basic Voter Turnout 101 stuff that all campaigns do.

Glad we got that straightened out.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Again, that's completely irrelevant to the discussion, but thanks. Instead of reading your story, we could have just clicked on the hyperlink provided to see that this is an assumption based off of the number of absentee ballots turned in from NOVA. They don't know if who these people are casting their ballots for...they might even be people voting for the burnt out pothead.

I'm perfectly content waiting until election night to tell you necks that you got your asses kicked (again).


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[nolanvt]

You purported to provide an explanation for Dave's puzzlement at a statement which you now call an assertion you haven't made. So, some dude asked you questions and tried to throw campaign literature at you while you threw your vote away...because...reasons, got it. Sorry to interrupt your episode of underpants gnome logic.

Yes, Dave asked how could anyone gauge turnout in VA given that we don't register by party. I responded that campaigns (and this isn't some new phenomenon) send people out to locations (with a personal anecdote), and they also place calls, go door to door, etc. As all of this is going on, campaigns are analyzing the data and controlling for various factors. This is pretty basic Voter Turnout 101 stuff that all campaigns do.

Glad we got that straightened out.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Again, that's completely irrelevant to the discussion, but thanks. Instead of reading your story, we could have just clicked on the hyperlink provided to see that this is an assumption based off of the number of absentee ballots turned in from NOVA. They don't know if who these people are casting their ballots for...they might even be people voting for the burnt out pothead.

I'm perfectly content waiting until election night to tell you necks that you got your asses kicked (again).


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Haven't decided if The Usuals™ are doing a bit or if they're actually going to be yelling from a mountaintop that the results were rigged when Trump loses.

[HokieHam]

You purported to provide an explanation for Dave's puzzlement at a statement which you now call an assertion you haven't made. So, some dude asked you questions and tried to throw campaign literature at you while you threw your vote away...because...reasons, got it. Sorry to interrupt your episode of underpants gnome logic.

Yes, Dave asked how could anyone gauge turnout in VA given that we don't register by party. I responded that campaigns (and this isn't some new phenomenon) send people out to locations (with a personal anecdote), and they also place calls, go door to door, etc. As all of this is going on, campaigns are analyzing the data and controlling for various factors. This is pretty basic Voter Turnout 101 stuff that all campaigns do.

Glad we got that straightened out.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Again, that's completely irrelevant to the discussion, but thanks. Instead of reading your story, we could have just clicked on the hyperlink provided to see that this is an assumption based off of the number of absentee ballots turned in from NOVA. They don't know if who these people are casting their ballots for...they might even be people voting for the burnt out pothead.

I'm perfectly content waiting until election night to tell you necks that you got your asses kicked (again).


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Haven't decided if The Usuals™ are doing a bit or if they're actually going to be yelling from a mountaintop that the results were rigged when Trump loses.

Trump.........is a lock.

[Attila T Hun]

You purported to provide an explanation for Dave's puzzlement at a statement which you now call an assertion you haven't made. So, some dude asked you questions and tried to throw campaign literature at you while you threw your vote away...because...reasons, got it. Sorry to interrupt your episode of underpants gnome logic.

Yes, Dave asked how could anyone gauge turnout in VA given that we don't register by party. I responded that campaigns (and this isn't some new phenomenon) send people out to locations (with a personal anecdote), and they also place calls, go door to door, etc. As all of this is going on, campaigns are analyzing the data and controlling for various factors. This is pretty basic Voter Turnout 101 stuff that all campaigns do.

Glad we got that straightened out.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Again, that's completely irrelevant to the discussion, but thanks. Instead of reading your story, we could have just clicked on the hyperlink provided to see that this is an assumption based off of the number of absentee ballots turned in from NOVA. They don't know if who these people are casting their ballots for...they might even be people voting for the burnt out pothead.

I'm perfectly content waiting until election night to tell you necks that you got your asses kicked (again).


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If it does occur you can credit minorities, illegals, dead people, criminals, Kaperdicks, Hollywood, professors, unions and the media...You know, the real American patriots who carry us day to day citizens.

[ip_law-hokie]

You purported to provide an explanation for Dave's puzzlement at a statement which you now call an assertion you haven't made. So, some dude asked you questions and tried to throw campaign literature at you while you threw your vote away...because...reasons, got it. Sorry to interrupt your episode of underpants gnome logic.

Yes, Dave asked how could anyone gauge turnout in VA given that we don't register by party. I responded that campaigns (and this isn't some new phenomenon) send people out to locations (with a personal anecdote), and they also place calls, go door to door, etc. As all of this is going on, campaigns are analyzing the data and controlling for various factors. This is pretty basic Voter Turnout 101 stuff that all campaigns do.

Glad we got that straightened out.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Again, that's completely irrelevant to the discussion, but thanks. Instead of reading your story, we could have just clicked on the hyperlink provided to see that this is an assumption based off of the number of absentee ballots turned in from NOVA. They don't know if who these people are casting their ballots for...they might even be people voting for the burnt out pothead.

I'm perfectly content waiting until election night to tell you necks that you got your asses kicked (again).


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

If it does occur you can credit minorities, illegals, dead people, criminals, Kaperdicks, Hollywood, professors, unions and the media...You know, the real American patriots who carry us day to day citizens.

Got it neck.


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