Trump is outperforming Romney 130k votes in FL early voting

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BigDave
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Re: Trump is outperforming Romney 130k votes in FL early vot

Post by BigDave »

nolanvt wrote:Or, it's a head fake by Clinton to give Trump the impression he has a chance in Michigan - he doesn't.
Umm ... what?

Do you think that Trump is just following Hillary around wherever she goes?
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TheH2
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Re: Trump is outperforming Romney 130k votes in FL early vot

Post by TheH2 »

USN_Hokie wrote:
awesome guy wrote:
TheH2 wrote:Now I'm convinced, Nolan is just an ignorant voter.

Did you mean ignorant or stupid?

either one is correct. HToo!
Both is also a correct answer
One implies he doesn't know any better, the other means he should. They mean different things. Ignorant isn't really an insult - although it is morphing into one.
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Re: Trump is outperforming Romney 130k votes in FL early vot

Post by BigDave »

Supposedly, African American turnout is way down in Michigan, which would result in Trump winning it. Michigan is kinda like anywhere else -Democrats win big in Detroit and Republicans win by 10-15% everywhere but Detroit. It all comes down to turnout in Detroit.
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Re: Trump is outperforming Romney 130k votes in FL early vot

Post by BigDave »

By the way, Obama is also in Michigan today. So that's one heckuva head fake if both Obama and Clinton are there.
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Re: Trump is outperforming Romney 130k votes in FL early vot

Post by nolanvt »

USN_Hokie wrote:
nolanvt wrote:
awesome guy wrote:Clinton is in Michigan right now. Yes, she needs to defend Michigan. Trump is also there. That shows where things are right now. Just going by body language, she looks tired and defeated. Trump looks energized and charging. Could just be the different staminas or it could be they both know what's coming!
Or, it's a head fake by Clinton to give Trump the impression he has a chance in Michigan - he doesn't.
Umm... Election is tomorrow bro. Do you think the Trump campaign is calling up to buy ads in Michigan right now?
They've spent time and money the last week in Michigan. Not a good deployment of resources by the Trump campaign.
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Re: Trump is outperforming Romney 130k votes in FL early vot

Post by USN_Hokie »

TheH2 wrote:
USN_Hokie wrote:
awesome guy wrote:
TheH2 wrote:Now I'm convinced, Nolan is just an ignorant voter.

Did you mean ignorant or stupid?

either one is correct. HToo!
Both is also a correct answer
One implies he doesn't know any better, the other means he should. They mean different things. Ignorant isn't really an insult - although it is morphing into one.
I know...and he could be both :mrgreen:

You're taking my ribbing of nolan way too seriously man.
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Re: Trump is outperforming Romney 130k votes in FL early vot

Post by nolanvt »

538 currently has Hillary at about an 80% chance to win Michigan.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201 ... /michigan/
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Re: Trump is outperforming Romney 130k votes in FL early vot

Post by TheH2 »

USN_Hokie wrote:
TheH2 wrote:
USN_Hokie wrote:
awesome guy wrote:
TheH2 wrote:Now I'm convinced, Nolan is just an ignorant voter.

Did you mean ignorant or stupid?

either one is correct. HToo!
Both is also a correct answer
One implies he doesn't know any better, the other means he should. They mean different things. Ignorant isn't really an insult - although it is morphing into one.
I know...and he could be both :mrgreen:

You're taking my ribbing of nolan way too seriously man.
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Re: Trump is outperforming Romney 130k votes in FL early vot

Post by USN_Hokie »

nolanvt wrote:538 currently has Hillary at about an 80% chance to win Michigan.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201 ... /michigan/
Someone should probably tell Obama and the Clinton campaign. Better yet...Hillary could just forward your link to the voters...no need to vote.

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Re: Trump is outperforming Romney 130k votes in FL early vot

Post by USN_Hokie »

Virginia just went to toss-up on RCP.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... e_map.html
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Re: Trump is outperforming Romney 130k votes in FL early vot

Post by BigDave »

USN_Hokie wrote:Virginia just went to toss-up on RCP.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... e_map.html
I don't understand their system. There is no poll that would seem to support Virginia being a toss-up. There are a number of states where one candidate has won every single poll and they have it as a toss-up.
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Re: Trump is outperforming Romney 130k votes in FL early vot

Post by USN_Hokie »

BigDave wrote:
USN_Hokie wrote:Virginia just went to toss-up on RCP.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... e_map.html
I don't understand their system. There is no poll that would seem to support Virginia being a toss-up. There are a number of states where one candidate has won every single poll and they have it as a toss-up.
I don't know either. Personally, I think Trump wins PA before he wins VA.
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Re: Trump is outperforming Romney 130k votes in FL early vot

Post by HokieJoe »

BigDave wrote:
USN_Hokie wrote:
BigDave wrote:
nolanvt wrote:Nah, touched on it in my last post. The reason USN's silly comparison was false is that my vote has already been determined when I arrive at the polling place. It has not when I go to serve on a jury.
More to the point, you're not spending your time in line deliberating. A more apt analogy would be, if offered the choice of serving on a jury for the first trial of the day with no deliberation or serving on a jury for the last trial of the day with one hour of deliberation (assuming both trials cover the same subject matter and the only difference is how long you will have to wait), which juror would you choose? Most would choose to not have to wait around in the courtroom all day.
Which juror do you want Dave? The one who "doesn't want to wait around in the courtroom all day", or the one who will sit through deliberations and listen to the arguments of others? Your conclusion is from the perspective of a lazy juror. We don't want lazy voters or jurors.
I'm not clear why you think both jurors aren't deliberating. Yeah, there are plenty of voters who automatically vote for their party's candidate, and are completely uninformed about any issues. I would suspect, though, that basically everyone on this board is far more informed than the average voter. Uninformed people don't tend to hang out on political message boards.

So there's nothing in the world that could change your vote all the way up to election day?

What if you voted for a candidate and discover afterwards, but before election day, that this person was being charged with a loathsome crime? Or perhaps candidate promised to pass some legislation that is anathema to your personal ideology?

Hopefully you'd feel bad about your poor decision making afterwards, but you'd have no one to blame but yourself. You didn't exercise due diligence before casting your vote.
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Re: Trump is outperforming Romney 130k votes in FL early vot

Post by HokieJoe »

TheH2 wrote:
USN_Hokie wrote:
awesome guy wrote:
TheH2 wrote:Now I'm convinced, Nolan is just an ignorant voter.

Did you mean ignorant or stupid?

either one is correct. HToo!
Both is also a correct answer
One implies he doesn't know any better, the other means he should. They mean different things. Ignorant isn't really an insult - although it is morphing into one.
Are you arguing that willful ignorance is a positive attribute?
"I predict future happiness for Americans, if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." - Thomas Jefferson
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Re: Trump is outperforming Romney 130k votes in FL early vot

Post by TheH2 »

HokieJoe wrote:
TheH2 wrote:
USN_Hokie wrote:
awesome guy wrote:
TheH2 wrote:Now I'm convinced, Nolan is just an ignorant voter.

Did you mean ignorant or stupid?

either one is correct. HToo!
Both is also a correct answer
One implies he doesn't know any better, the other means he should. They mean different things. Ignorant isn't really an insult - although it is morphing into one.
Are you arguing that willful ignorance is a positive attribute?
It can be.

On another note, I don't know anything about physics, that doesn't make me stupid, just ignorant.
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Re: Trump is outperforming Romney 130k votes in FL early vot

Post by UpstateSCHokie »

USN_Hokie wrote:Virginia just went to toss-up on RCP.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... e_map.html
New Mexico has also moved into the toss-up category.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2 ... vember.pdf

Also, looks like the Johnson voters are the real suckers here. He's losing tons of ground in the state where he was the gov.
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Re: Trump is outperforming Romney 130k votes in FL early vot

Post by Uprising »

BigDave wrote:
nolanvt wrote:Is it your opinion that early/absentee voting is somehow not Constitutional? (This one is going to be fun!)
Article II Section 1 wrote:The Congress may determine the time of choosing the electors, and the day on which they shall give their votes; which day shall be the same throughout the United States.
Congress set election day to be the Tuesday of the first full week of November. Voting other than that day violates the law.

On the sliding scale of "how abhorrent to the Constitution is this", allowing for absentee ballots - where you actually have a reason other than "I want to" to need to vote early isn't nearly as bad as unrestricted early voting ... but neither one is constitutional, strictly speaking.
This is not a good interpretation of this section. Congress sets the time in which states choose their electors, but how those electors are chosen is up to the state:
Each state shall appoint, in such manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a number of electors...
Congress then sets the day in which the electors choose the President, which is in December. All state electors must choose on the same day. There is nothing that prevents states from allowing early voting on electors.
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Re: Trump is outperforming Romney 130k votes in FL early vot

Post by RiverguyVT »

Anyone here answer when a pollster calls? I don't
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Re: Trump is outperforming Romney 130k votes in FL early vot

Post by UpstateSCHokie »

RiverguyVT wrote:Anyone here answer when a pollster calls? I don't
Nope. I don't answer any incoming calls where I don't recognize the number. If its important, they can leave a message and I'll call them back.
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Re: Trump is outperforming Romney 130k votes in FL early vot

Post by USN_Hokie »

Uprising wrote:
BigDave wrote:
nolanvt wrote:Is it your opinion that early/absentee voting is somehow not Constitutional? (This one is going to be fun!)
Article II Section 1 wrote:The Congress may determine the time of choosing the electors, and the day on which they shall give their votes; which day shall be the same throughout the United States.
Congress set election day to be the Tuesday of the first full week of November. Voting other than that day violates the law.

On the sliding scale of "how abhorrent to the Constitution is this", allowing for absentee ballots - where you actually have a reason other than "I want to" to need to vote early isn't nearly as bad as unrestricted early voting ... but neither one is constitutional, strictly speaking.
This is not a good interpretation of this section. Congress sets the time in which states choose their electors, but how those electors are chosen is up to the state:
Each state shall appoint, in such manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a number of electors...
Congress then sets the day in which the electors choose the President, which is in December. All state electors must choose on the same day. There is nothing that prevents states from allowing early voting on electors.
This is correct.

The better question is: Is there anything that prohibits a state from not allowing early voting? I don't think so.
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Re: Trump is outperforming Romney 130k votes in FL early vot

Post by BigDave »

RiverguyVT wrote:Anyone here answer when a pollster calls? I don't
I took the PPP poll a few times four years ago just out of curiosity. Now, I have blocking of junk calls, so if a pollster were to call, I wouldn't find out about it.

The PPP poll isn't worth the paper that it is(n't) printed on. There are far too many methodological errors with it. I was blasted on this board for daring to say that PPP was a junk poll ... although Nate Silver agrees with me http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/her ... the-scale/
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Re: Trump is outperforming Romney 130k votes in FL early vot

Post by UpstateSCHokie »

USN_Hokie wrote:
Uprising wrote:
BigDave wrote:
nolanvt wrote:Is it your opinion that early/absentee voting is somehow not Constitutional? (This one is going to be fun!)
Article II Section 1 wrote:The Congress may determine the time of choosing the electors, and the day on which they shall give their votes; which day shall be the same throughout the United States.
Congress set election day to be the Tuesday of the first full week of November. Voting other than that day violates the law.

On the sliding scale of "how abhorrent to the Constitution is this", allowing for absentee ballots - where you actually have a reason other than "I want to" to need to vote early isn't nearly as bad as unrestricted early voting ... but neither one is constitutional, strictly speaking.
This is not a good interpretation of this section. Congress sets the time in which states choose their electors, but how those electors are chosen is up to the state:
Each state shall appoint, in such manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a number of electors...
Congress then sets the day in which the electors choose the President, which is in December. All state electors must choose on the same day. There is nothing that prevents states from allowing early voting on electors.
This is correct.

The better question is: Is there anything that prohibits a state from not allowing early voting? I don't think so.
So theoretically, a state could have never-ending voting. Voting for the next election could start the day after the previous election.

I can see expanding election "day" to start on the Saturday before the final Tuesday, and give people 4 days to get to the polls, but I don't see why having a full month to vote is needed - except by people that want a system where its easier to cheat.
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Re: Trump is outperforming Romney 130k votes in FL early vot

Post by ElbertoHokie »

HokieJoe wrote:
BigDave wrote:
USN_Hokie wrote:
BigDave wrote:
nolanvt wrote:Nah, touched on it in my last post. The reason USN's silly comparison was false is that my vote has already been determined when I arrive at the polling place. It has not when I go to serve on a jury.
More to the point, you're not spending your time in line deliberating. A more apt analogy would be, if offered the choice of serving on a jury for the first trial of the day with no deliberation or serving on a jury for the last trial of the day with one hour of deliberation (assuming both trials cover the same subject matter and the only difference is how long you will have to wait), which juror would you choose? Most would choose to not have to wait around in the courtroom all day.
Which juror do you want Dave? The one who "doesn't want to wait around in the courtroom all day", or the one who will sit through deliberations and listen to the arguments of others? Your conclusion is from the perspective of a lazy juror. We don't want lazy voters or jurors.
I'm not clear why you think both jurors aren't deliberating. Yeah, there are plenty of voters who automatically vote for their party's candidate, and are completely uninformed about any issues. I would suspect, though, that basically everyone on this board is far more informed than the average voter. Uninformed people don't tend to hang out on political message boards.

So there's nothing in the world that could change your vote all the way up to election day?

What if you voted for a candidate and discover afterwards, but before election day, that this person was being charged with a loathsome crime? Or perhaps candidate promised to pass some legislation that is anathema to your personal ideology?

Hopefully you'd feel bad about your poor decision making afterwards, but you'd have no one to blame but yourself. You didn't exercise due diligence before casting your vote.
In vote by mail states, you can change your vote all the way up to election day. You just have to call into the county elections office. I haven't done it so I have no idea how easy it is but you can alter your vote before or on election day.
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Re: Trump is outperforming Romney 130k votes in FL early vot

Post by HokieJoe »

TheH2 wrote:
HokieJoe wrote:
TheH2 wrote:
USN_Hokie wrote:
awesome guy wrote:
TheH2 wrote:Now I'm convinced, Nolan is just an ignorant voter.

Did you mean ignorant or stupid?

either one is correct. HToo!
Both is also a correct answer
One implies he doesn't know any better, the other means he should. They mean different things. Ignorant isn't really an insult - although it is morphing into one.
Are you arguing that willful ignorance is a positive attribute?
It can be.

On another note, I don't know anything about physics, that doesn't make me stupid, just ignorant.
FTR, I didn't say he was stupid.
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Re: Trump is outperforming Romney 130k votes in FL early vot

Post by RiverguyVT »

It is way to easy to cheat.
So I put (the dead dog) on her doorstep!
Salute the Marines
Soon we'll have planes that fly 22000 mph
"#PedoPete" = Hunter's name for his dad.
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