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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:12 pm 
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Anyone else think the stock market is the most unwavering bull market they have ever experienced?

It feels like the last 14 months have been the least volatile bull market of my life. Most of the other ones have been so choppy(up 1.5%, down 1.5%, up 1%, down 2%, up 2%). The days have been roller coasters in the past. The Obama bull market was sooooo choppy.

How long can this go on?


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:15 pm 
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Bay_area_Hokie wrote:
Anyone else think the stock market is the most unwavering bull market they have ever experienced?

It feels like the last 14 months have been the least volatile bull market of my life. Most of the other ones have been so choppy(up 1.5%, down 1.5%, up 1%, down 2%, up 2%). The days have been roller coasters in the past. The Obama bull market was sooooo choppy.

How long can this go on?
Performance has to match expectations at some point. I'm seeing a correction coming.

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:19 pm 
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awesome guy wrote:
Bay_area_Hokie wrote:
Anyone else think the stock market is the most unwavering bull market they have ever experienced?

It feels like the last 14 months have been the least volatile bull market of my life. Most of the other ones have been so choppy(up 1.5%, down 1.5%, up 1%, down 2%, up 2%). The days have been roller coasters in the past. The Obama bull market was sooooo choppy.

How long can this go on?
Performance has to match expectations at some point. I'm seeing a correction coming.


I agree. Have been gradually moving retirement money into stable value funds. Will try to continue doing so over the course of the year. 20% annual gains are nuts.


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:23 pm 
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I was listening to some economist on FBN a few weeks ago and he had a point that I found interesting: this recovery was maybe our weakest recovery ever and so even though it feels like we should be late cycle and about to have an immediate correction, we are really just mid-cycle because the recovery was so weak. His claim is that the correction is still a few years off.

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:27 pm 
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Watch out for unrealistic P:E's.


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:04 pm 
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I just don't see a correction coming soon. Everyone is doing well. Everyone is hiring like crazy. Companies are sitting on record cash balances cause they don't have as many good ideas as they have dollars.

And we still haven't seen M&A activity that I would call "nuts". Those normally happen at the end LOL. People over pay and then everything goes to excrement and a lot of execs start staring at their shoes(think AOL/Time Warner).

Maybe I am wrong, but I am bullish. I haven't seen housing go completely crazy yet either.


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:15 pm 
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Bay_area_Hokie wrote:
I just don't see a correction coming soon. Everyone is doing well. Everyone is hiring like crazy.

*BLS - job creation "on par" with U.S. employment since 2011.

Bay_area_Hokie wrote:
Companies are sitting on record cash balances cause they don't have as many good ideas as they have dollars.

And we still haven't seen M&A activity that I would call "nuts". Those normally happen at the end LOL. People over pay and then everything goes to excrement and a lot of execs start staring at their shoes(think AOL/Time Warner).

Maybe I am wrong, but I am bullish. I haven't seen housing go completely crazy yet either.


Apple should start a private equity business. Focus on the first decade of GE Capital and get to work. Or just go straight equity. Before too long they could own a few percent of every company in the S&P 500. Throw in some Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, a little extra Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google for good measure. Drop in a good percentage of the new CVS to get some extra healthcare.


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