So today was a bad day on wall street for sure.

[ElbertoHokie]

President's take too much credit when the economy is booming, and take too much blame when it is tanking.

Always have, always will.

[133743Hokie]

I may be an old fart... but a 500 pt swing when the mkt is at 25,000 doesn't bother me like a 50 pt swing did when the market was at 500

Agree

This was TIC right?

No. A 2% swing today doesn't bother me like a 10% swing did decades ago.

Agreed! I clearly read the numbers wrong and/or can't do math.

I was wondering!

[133743Hokie]

I may be an old fart... but a 500 pt swing when the mkt is at 25,000 doesn't bother me like a 50 pt swing did when the market was at 500

Agree

This was TIC right?

No. A 2% swing today doesn't bother me like a 10% swing did decades ago.

Not to mention that the market is more volatile now, too, than it was back then.

That is the opposite of what the stock market has been during this massive bull market. The reason you haven't heard many stories about this long bull market has been the boring, slow and steady, record low volatility that has been observed. Your perception does not match the data.

https://www.thestreet.com/story/1443739 ... es-on.html

Agree. This has been the least volatile market growth run in my lifetime.

[133743Hokie]

Agree. We are 7 years into a massive bull run with amazing gains. No one should be surprised if we see a correction in the near future. The rapid defecit increases in US defecits are a concern. Furthermore, fed rates have been at historic lows for an awfully long time. I think we should return those to "normalized" levels.

correction, the economy limped along while Obummer was in office, yes the market did ok but due to the economy limping along the gains are over the last year, up 21% before the last two days I believe since this time last year.[/quote]

This is a fantastic post. The stock market is on a top-3 all time bull market run, calling it "OK" demonstrates your loose grip on the data you are speaking about. Job creation is also on a record long streak and has continued on the same really positive trend for Obama and Trump. There is no discontinuity to the trend line. Both guys have seen similar results, which are great for both. Unemployment is at lows not seen since the Clinton administration. As a non-partisan, I don't see how you look at job creation and find Obama or Trump to be different or superior to one another.[/quote]

so .7 gdp growth is really good? Obummer never got above 2 % GDP growth in his ENTIRE 8 years, but if you want to think he was great then so be it, the economy limped along in reality. you can now post how dumb I am as I am sure you are soooo much smarter than me.[/quote]
Slower growth in Obama era never got above 3%, not 2%.

[UpstateSCHokie]

Looks like the DOW is on its way to recovery almost half of y'day's losses unless another crazy downturn happens between now and the closing bell.

Fact of the matter is, the stock market is just one (somewhat minor) indicator of the overall health of the economy. The job market, wage growth, and GDP growth (not counting government) are much better indicators of how healthy it is.

Looking at how stocks perform over the course of 1 day or a week is garbage. But the media is obsessing over yesterday.

[fatman]

Looks like the DOW is on its way to recovery almost half of y'day's losses unless another crazy downturn happens between now and the closing bell.

Fact of the matter is, the stock market is just one (somewhat minor) indicator of the overall health of the economy. The job market, wage growth, and GDP growth (not counting government) are much better indicators of how healthy it is.

Looking at how stocks perform over the course of 1 day or a week is garbage. But the media is obsessing over yesterday.

The trend of low volatility melt up increases in the market has been broken. Maybe that's temporary, I suspect it is given the health of the US economy, but maybe it isn't. Let's be really clear, trump has tweeted more than 60x taking credit for stock market gains, of course he is going to get dinged when they drop by 1000 points. No other president has "owned" stock market performance like trump has. He made it an issue.

I have been loving this bull market across both Obama and trump's time in office. I haven't taken profits yet, but I probably will this month. I think it will be tough to keep rising from this level. Nothing goes up forever and I think the multi year earnings growth story will be slowing. We shall see.

[RiverguyVT]

Volatility- depends on your timeframe. I’m suggesting a longer term than you may be. Advent of program trading has made things both more volatile, and at times, stable. 15 -20 year window? Volatile. 4-5 year window? Not volatile at all...

[ip_law-hokie]

Volatility- depends on your timeframe. I’m suggesting a longer term than you may be. Advent of program trading has made things both more volatile, and at times, stable. 15 -20 year window? Volatile. 4-5 year window? Not volatile at all...

I’d say that people have a misconception of volatility, as it is only volatile if things are going down. I’d argue that the past 4-5 years have been very volatile, just only in the up direction. There’s probably an objective measure that can tell me I’m FOS.

It’s not clear to me how these gains are sustainable. Are companies making that much more money?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[cwtcr hokie]

Volatility- depends on your timeframe. I’m suggesting a longer term than you may be. Advent of program trading has made things both more volatile, and at times, stable. 15 -20 year window? Volatile. 4-5 year window? Not volatile at all...

I’d say that people have a misconception of volatility, as it is only volatile if things are going down. I’d argue that the past 4-5 years have been very volatile, just only in the up direction. There’s probably an objective measure that can tell me I’m FOS.

It’s not clear to me how these gains are sustainable. Are companies making that much more money?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

corp profits are reporting well, and they just a tax cut and consumers are spending and unemployment is very low.....so yes it is sustainable. Or in other words, cut stupid regs, get gov. the hell out of the way and businesses will boom.

[133743Hokie]

Volatility- depends on your timeframe. I’m suggesting a longer term than you may be. Advent of program trading has made things both more volatile, and at times, stable. 15 -20 year window? Volatile. 4-5 year window? Not volatile at all...

I’d say that people have a misconception of volatility, as it is only volatile if things are going down. I’d argue that the past 4-5 years have been very volatile, just only in the up direction. There’s probably an objective measure that can tell me I’m FOS.

It’s not clear to me how these gains are sustainable. Are companies making that much more money?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

IMO volatility is large swings, up or down.

[RiverguyVT]

Volatility- depends on your timeframe. I’m suggesting a longer term than you may be. Advent of program trading has made things both more volatile, and at times, stable. 15 -20 year window? Volatile. 4-5 year window? Not volatile at all...

I’d say that people have a misconception of volatility, as it is only volatile if things are going down. I’d argue that the past 4-5 years have been very volatile, just only in the up direction. There’s probably an objective measure that can tell me I’m FOS.

It’s not clear to me how these gains are sustainable. Are companies making that much more money?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yes, people in the biz have a measure of volatility. I used to be more in tune with the calculation, but think of it as being a statistical measure of variability ... yes, the stock biz is very dialed in to it. I think the Greek letter they notate is an "alpha", but I may be mis-remembering

[ip_law-hokie]

Volatility- depends on your timeframe. I’m suggesting a longer term than you may be. Advent of program trading has made things both more volatile, and at times, stable. 15 -20 year window? Volatile. 4-5 year window? Not volatile at all...

I’d say that people have a misconception of volatility, as it is only volatile if things are going down. I’d argue that the past 4-5 years have been very volatile, just only in the up direction. There’s probably an objective measure that can tell me I’m FOS.

It’s not clear to me how these gains are sustainable. Are companies making that much more money?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yes, people in the biz have a measure of volatility. I used to be more in tune with the calculation, but think of it as being a statistical measure of variability ... yes, the stock biz is very dialed in to it. I think the Greek letter they notate is an "alpha", but I may be mis-remembering

I used to mess around with VIX and XIV until I realized that it was a lot like silly message board debates - you are an automatic loser by virtue of your participation in the debate.

The decay on those things is crazy - great way to lose money.

[TheH2]

So given this:

so .7 gdp growth is really good? Obummer never got above 2 % GDP growth in his ENTIRE 8 years, but if you want to think he was great then so be it, the economy limped along in reality. you can now post how dumb I am as I am sure you are soooo much smarter than me.

And the fact that GDP growth under Obama was approximately 3x greater than you thought. Would it be reasonable to assume that you are biased when considering anything that happened under Obama?

[ip_law-hokie]

Let's say the inevitable correction is occuring or occurs in the near future(month, maybe 2). How do you see the mid terms going? How do the mid terms go if status quo is maintained?

This is rich. Apparently the Tweet wasn't very effective.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/02 ... ig-mistake

[cwtcr hokie]

So given this:

so .7 gdp growth is really good? Obummer never got above 2 % GDP growth in his ENTIRE 8 years, but if you want to think he was great then so be it, the economy limped along in reality. you can now post how dumb I am as I am sure you are soooo much smarter than me.

And the fact that GDP growth under Obama was approximately 3x greater than you thought. Would it be reasonable to assume that you are biased when considering anything that happened under Obama?

Obummer got to 6% GDP....wooo hooo

[HokieFanDC]

Let's say the inevitable correction is occuring or occurs in the near future(month, maybe 2). How do you see the mid terms going? How do the mid terms go if status quo is maintained?

This is rich. Apparently the Tweet wasn't very effective.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/02 ... ig-mistake

The stock market needs a parade to bolster morale.

[133743Hokie]

Let's say the inevitable correction is occuring or occurs in the near future(month, maybe 2). How do you see the mid terms going? How do the mid terms go if status quo is maintained?

This is rich. Apparently the Tweet wasn't very effective.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/02 ... ig-mistake

The stock market needs a parade to bolster morale.

Nah, just need the democrats to be reasonable on keeping the government running and setting a reasonable budget.

[ip_law-hokie]

Let's say the inevitable correction is occuring or occurs in the near future(month, maybe 2). How do you see the mid terms going? How do the mid terms go if status quo is maintained?

This is rich. Apparently the Tweet wasn't very effective.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/02 ... ig-mistake

The stock market needs a parade to bolster morale.

Nah, just need the democrats to be reasonable on keeping the government running and setting a reasonable budget.

If only the Republicans had control of both houses and the presidency.

[133743Hokie]

Let's say the inevitable correction is occuring or occurs in the near future(month, maybe 2). How do you see the mid terms going? How do the mid terms go if status quo is maintained?

This is rich. Apparently the Tweet wasn't very effective.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/02 ... ig-mistake

The stock market needs a parade to bolster morale.

Nah, just need the democrats to be reasonable on keeping the government running and setting a reasonable budget.

If only the Republicans had control of both houses and the presidency.

Yeah, that pesky little 60 vote rule tends to get in the way though.

[ip_law-hokie]

Let's say the inevitable correction is occuring or occurs in the near future(month, maybe 2). How do you see the mid terms going? How do the mid terms go if status quo is maintained?

This is rich. Apparently the Tweet wasn't very effective.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/02 ... ig-mistake

The stock market needs a parade to bolster morale.

Nah, just need the democrats to be reasonable on keeping the government running and setting a reasonable budget.

If only the Republicans had control of both houses and the presidency.

Yeah, that pesky little 60 vote rule tends to get in the way though.

That's loser talk.

[HokieHam]

That's loser talk.

Yeah. Let’s get rid of that loser rule.

[ElbertoHokie]

That's loser talk.

Yeah. Let’s get rid of that loser rule.

I think the loser rule keeps us from passing too much legislation. A good thing. Otherwise california democrats would have this country operating as a welfare state at a far faster rate.

[awesome guy]

That's loser talk.

Yeah. Let’s get rid of that loser rule.

I think the loser rule keeps us from passing too much legislation. A good thing. Otherwise california democrats would have this country operating as a welfare state at a far faster rate.

It would be better to return the Senate to state representation.

[HokieHam]

That's loser talk.

Yeah. Let’s get rid of that loser rule.

I think the loser rule keeps us from passing too much legislation. A good thing. Otherwise california democrats would have this country operating as a welfare state at a far faster rate.

It would be better to return the Senate to state representation.

Yup.

[Mcl3 Hokie]

That's loser talk.

Yeah. Let’s get rid of that loser rule.

Wait, how many full budgets were passed under Obama? I thought they went something like 6 years without a full budget during his presidency. One year the Dems wouldn’t even propose one. That’s loser talk.