So today was a bad day on wall street for sure.

[cwtcr hokie]

Let's say the inevitable correction is occuring or occurs in the near future(month, maybe 2). How do you see the mid terms going? How do the mid terms go if status quo is maintained?

apparantly friday was just a primer for today, whew, what retirement?

If you’ve been in the market through the eight years President Barrack Hussein Obama, and Trump’s first year, you shouldn’t be blaming the state of your portfolio on this correction. That’s not logical.

Not to say that this isn’t a preview for a 50% haircut in 12 months, but for now you are exaggerating.


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The market is still up 19% over the past 12 months. Nothing to sneeze at.

Agree. We are 7 years into a massive bull run with amazing gains. No one should be surprised if we see a correction in the near future. The rapid defecit increases in US defecits are a concern. Furthermore, fed rates have been at historic lows for an awfully long time. I think we should return those to "normalized" levels.

correction, the economy limped along while Obummer was in office, yes the market did ok but due to the economy limping along the gains are over the last year, up 21% before the last two days I believe since this time last year.

[cwtcr hokie]

Let's say the inevitable correction is occuring or occurs in the near future(month, maybe 2). How do you see the mid terms going? How do the mid terms go if status quo is maintained?

apparantly friday was just a primer for today, whew, what retirement?

If you’ve been in the market through the eight years President Barrack Hussein Obama, and Trump’s first year, you shouldn’t be blaming the state of your portfolio on this correction. That’s not logical.

Not to say that this isn’t a preview for a 50% haircut in 12 months, but for now you are exaggerating.


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I plan to win the powerball, retirement is taken care of

[TheH2]

Let's say the inevitable correction is occuring or occurs in the near future(month, maybe 2). How do you see the mid terms going? How do the mid terms go if status quo is maintained?

apparantly friday was just a primer for today, whew, what retirement?

If you’ve been in the market through the eight years President Barrack Hussein Obama, and Trump’s first year, you shouldn’t be blaming the state of your portfolio on this correction. That’s not logical.

Not to say that this isn’t a preview for a 50% haircut in 12 months, but for now you are exaggerating.


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The market is still up 19% over the past 12 months. Nothing to sneeze at.

Agree. We are 7 years into a massive bull run with amazing gains. No one should be surprised if we see a correction in the near future. The rapid defecit increases in US defecits are a concern. Furthermore, fed rates have been at historic lows for an awfully long time. I think we should return those to "normalized" levels.

correction, the economy limped along while Obummer was in office, yes the market did ok but due to the economy limping along the gains are over the last year, up 21% before the last two days I believe since this time last year.

You're right, it limped along while Obama was in office, but it's on fire now that Trump is in charge. Please note, I'm not complaining about the economy.

GDP Growth:
2010: 2.5
2011: 1.6
2012: 2.2
2013: 1.7
2014: 2.6
2015: 2.9
2016: 1.5
2017: 2.3

Average monthly employment:
2010: 87.8
2011: 174.2
2012: 179.3
2013: 191.8
2014: 250.4
2015: 226.0
2016: 195.3
2017: 183.0

[TheH2]

I may be an old fart... but a 500 pt swing when the mkt is at 25,000 doesn't bother me like a 50 pt swing did when the market was at 500

Agree

This was TIC right?

[RiverguyVT]

I may be an old fart... but a 500 pt swing when the mkt is at 25,000 doesn't bother me like a 50 pt swing did when the market was at 500

Agree

This was TIC right?

Definitely melodramatic, but not TIC at all. Cut my “500” some slack. Okay. Call it 700, 800, or 1000.

Point stands. I do remember news blowing up over a 12 or 14 pt drop. Well hells bells! The market was only at 750!

For those touting the Obama bull market, I only ask to look at the “why”. Hint: time value of money, and really low rates. Really low.

Compare w/ this one. Tax cuts basically just threw 14% net to the bottom lines of corporations used to making only 3% (or less!). Earnings! Now, trickle that down the line. Plant expansions may be afforded now, that were tabled before. Customers have money by way of tax savings. Disposable income way up. Suppliers, builders, etc etc will respond to the new plant needs, in turn generating employment, wages, and yes...more taxes. Velocity of the dollar was just given an adrenaline shot.

It is inflation that I’ll worry about, as unemployment drops.

Remember the differences between a movement along a curve vs a shift of the curve itself.

Lots going on now. FUTURE earnings. A built in 14% bump, baseline, BEFORE considering the economic advantages of said capital availability. If stocks are “overvalued” now, they were insanely overvalued 15-20 months ago.

And all this, without me donning my foil conspiracy hat that suggests goldman’s program trade directors are anti trump, and the Fed is anti Trump. Imagine if both (plus the press) were up his arse the way they were up Obama’s!!!

[ip_law-hokie]

Let's say the inevitable correction is occuring or occurs in the near future(month, maybe 2). How do you see the mid terms going? How do the mid terms go if status quo is maintained?

Trump, or Trump’s people, probably just Trump, did themselves a disservice by tying their performance to the vagaries of the stock market. Amateur move.


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[133743Hokie]

I may be an old fart... but a 500 pt swing when the mkt is at 25,000 doesn't bother me like a 50 pt swing did when the market was at 500

Agree

This was TIC right?

No. A 2% swing today doesn't bother me like a 10% swing did decades ago.

[RiverguyVT]

I may be an old fart... but a 500 pt swing when the mkt is at 25,000 doesn't bother me like a 50 pt swing did when the market was at 500

Agree

This was TIC right?

No. A 2% swing today doesn't bother me like a 10% swing did decades ago.

Not to mention that the market is more volatile now, too, than it was back then.

[TheH2]

I may be an old fart... but a 500 pt swing when the mkt is at 25,000 doesn't bother me like a 50 pt swing did when the market was at 500

Agree

This was TIC right?

Definitely melodramatic, but not TIC at all. Cut my “500” some slack. Okay. Call it 700, 800, or 1000.

Point stands. I do remember news blowing up over a 12 or 14 pt drop. Well hells bells! The market was only at 750!

For those touting the Obama bull market, I only ask to look at the “why”. Hint: time value of money, and really low rates. Really low.

Compare w/ this one. Tax cuts basically just threw 14% net to the bottom lines of corporations used to making only 3% (or less!). Earnings! Now, trickle that down the line. Plant expansions may be afforded now, that were tabled before. Customers have money by way of tax savings. Disposable income way up. Suppliers, builders, etc etc will respond to the new plant needs, in turn generating employment, wages, and yes...more taxes. Velocity of the dollar was just given an adrenaline shot.

It is inflation that I’ll worry about, as unemployment drops.

Remember the differences between a movement along a curve vs a shift of the curve itself.

Lots going on now. FUTURE earnings. A built in 14% bump, baseline, BEFORE considering the economic advantages of said capital availability. If stocks are “overvalued” now, they were insanely overvalued 15-20 months ago.

And all this, without me donning my foil conspiracy hat that suggests goldman’s program trade directors are anti trump, and the Fed is anti Trump. Imagine if both (plus the press) were up his arse the way they were up Obama’s!!!

Don't mind me, a 10% drop should bother you one hell of a lot more.

[TheH2]

Let's say the inevitable correction is occuring or occurs in the near future(month, maybe 2). How do you see the mid terms going? How do the mid terms go if status quo is maintained?

Trump, or Trump’s people, probably just Trump, did themselves a disservice by tying their performance to the vagaries of the stock market. Amateur move.


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Really though? It would have been an amateur move for anyone else, but this won't stick to him if the markets are down come election time.

[awesome guy]

I may be an old fart... but a 500 pt swing when the mkt is at 25,000 doesn't bother me like a 50 pt swing did when the market was at 500

Agree

This was TIC right?

No. A 2% swing today doesn't bother me like a 10% swing did decades ago.

2% vs 10% is all one needs to know.

[TheH2]

I may be an old fart... but a 500 pt swing when the mkt is at 25,000 doesn't bother me like a 50 pt swing did when the market was at 500

Agree

This was TIC right?

No. A 2% swing today doesn't bother me like a 10% swing did decades ago.

Agreed! I clearly read the numbers wrong and/or can't do math.

[ip_law-hokie]

I may be an old fart... but a 500 pt swing when the mkt is at 25,000 doesn't bother me like a 50 pt swing did when the market was at 500

Agree

This was TIC right?

Definitely melodramatic, but not TIC at all. Cut my “500” some slack. Okay. Call it 700, 800, or 1000.

Point stands. I do remember news blowing up over a 12 or 14 pt drop. Well hells bells! The market was only at 750!

For those touting the Obama bull market, I only ask to look at the “why”. Hint: time value of money, and really low rates. Really low.

Compare w/ this one. Tax cuts basically just threw 14% net to the bottom lines of corporations used to making only 3% (or less!). Earnings! Now, trickle that down the line. Plant expansions may be afforded now, that were tabled before. Customers have money by way of tax savings. Disposable income way up. Suppliers, builders, etc etc will respond to the new plant needs, in turn generating employment, wages, and yes...more taxes. Velocity of the dollar was just given an adrenaline shot.

It is inflation that I’ll worry about, as unemployment drops.

Remember the differences between a movement along a curve vs a shift of the curve itself.

Lots going on now. FUTURE earnings. A built in 14% bump, baseline, BEFORE considering the economic advantages of said capital availability. If stocks are “overvalued” now, they were insanely overvalued 15-20 months ago.

And all this, without me donning my foil conspiracy hat that suggests goldman’s program trade directors are anti trump, and the Fed is anti Trump. Imagine if both (plus the press) were up his arse the way they were up Obama’s!!!

Don't mind me, a 10% drop should bother you one hell of a lot more.

I think you are misreading his post, and others are ribbing Riverguy because the Dow was at last at 500 around 1950.

So either Riverguy is really old,or he is exaggerating a bit.


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[RiverguyVT]

I explained

A 10% drop is worse than a 2% one.
Especially when on a period of relative market stability

[fatman]

I may be an old fart... but a 500 pt swing when the mkt is at 25,000 doesn't bother me like a 50 pt swing did when the market was at 500

Agree

This was TIC right?

No. A 2% swing today doesn't bother me like a 10% swing did decades ago.

Not to mention that the market is more volatile now, too, than it was back then.

That is the opposite of what the stock market has been during this massive bull market. The reason you haven't heard many stories about this long bull market has been the boring, slow and steady, record low volatility that has been observed. Your perception does not match the data.

https://www.thestreet.com/story/1443739 ... es-on.html

[fatman]

Let's say the inevitable correction is occuring or occurs in the near future(month, maybe 2). How do you see the mid terms going? How do the mid terms go if status quo is maintained?

apparantly friday was just a primer for today, whew, what retirement?

If you’ve been in the market through the eight years President Barrack Hussein Obama, and Trump’s first year, you shouldn’t be blaming the state of your portfolio on this correction. That’s not logical.

Not to say that this isn’t a preview for a 50% haircut in 12 months, but for now you are exaggerating.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The market is still up 19% over the past 12 months. Nothing to sneeze at.

Agree. We are 7 years into a massive bull run with amazing gains. No one should be surprised if we see a correction in the near future. The rapid defecit increases in US defecits are a concern. Furthermore, fed rates have been at historic lows for an awfully long time. I think we should return those to "normalized" levels.

correction, the economy limped along while Obummer was in office, yes the market did ok but due to the economy limping along the gains are over the last year, up 21% before the last two days I believe since this time last year.

This is a fantastic post. The stock market is on a top-3 all time bull market run, calling it "OK" demonstrates your loose grip on the data you are speaking about. Job creation is also on a record long streak and has continued on the same really positive trend for Obama and Trump. There is no discontinuity to the trend line. Both guys have seen similar results, which are great for both. Unemployment is at lows not seen since the Clinton administration. As a non-partisan, I don't see how you look at job creation and find Obama or Trump to be different or superior to one another.

[fatman]

I may be an old fart... but a 500 pt swing when the mkt is at 25,000 doesn't bother me like a 50 pt swing did when the market was at 500

Agree

This was TIC right?

Definitely melodramatic, but not TIC at all. Cut my “500” some slack. Okay. Call it 700, 800, or 1000.

Point stands. I do remember news blowing up over a 12 or 14 pt drop. Well hells bells! The market was only at 750!

For those touting the Obama bull market, I only ask to look at the “why”. Hint: time value of money, and really low rates. Really low.

Compare w/ this one. Tax cuts basically just threw 14% net to the bottom lines of corporations used to making only 3% (or less!). Earnings! Now, trickle that down the line. Plant expansions may be afforded now, that were tabled before. Customers have money by way of tax savings. Disposable income way up. Suppliers, builders, etc etc will respond to the new plant needs, in turn generating employment, wages, and yes...more taxes. Velocity of the dollar was just given an adrenaline shot.

It is inflation that I’ll worry about, as unemployment drops.

Remember the differences between a movement along a curve vs a shift of the curve itself.

Lots going on now. FUTURE earnings. A built in 14% bump, baseline, BEFORE considering the economic advantages of said capital availability. If stocks are “overvalued” now, they were insanely overvalued 15-20 months ago.

And all this, without me donning my foil conspiracy hat that suggests goldman’s program trade directors are anti trump, and the Fed is anti Trump. Imagine if both (plus the press) were up his arse the way they were up Obama’s!!!

FUTURE earnings, but also FUTURE liabilities. Those tax cuts weren't offset by spending cuts, they are just stacking onto the government deficit. i suspect you would agree that this will be inflationary, because sooner or later the US will have to confront the deficit and the increasing interest rates.

Question for you on timing. These tax cuts aren't being introduced during a recession or a period of low unemployment, they are timed 6-7 years into a record long bull market, 6-7 years into a period of economic expansion, 6-7 years into a period of employment expansion, second only to the clinton bull market in length. Unemployment is near record lows. Who will fill the jobs that you are talking about? I'm sure you agree that any job growth with unemployment this low is inflationary.

Corporate profits have been strong in recent years, could you expand on the lack of capital available to these profitable companies?

I'm not cocky enough to claim to understand the stock market's daily operations. I would argue that the tax cuts don't guarantee a continuation of the record bull market we've seen as you appear to assert. I wouldn't be surprised to see a correction here or a resumption to the long term bull trend at this point.

[HokieFanDC]

Let's say the inevitable correction is occuring or occurs in the near future(month, maybe 2). How do you see the mid terms going? How do the mid terms go if status quo is maintained?

apparantly friday was just a primer for today, whew, what retirement?

If you’ve been in the market through the eight years President Barrack Hussein Obama, and Trump’s first year, you shouldn’t be blaming the state of your portfolio on this correction. That’s not logical.

Not to say that this isn’t a preview for a 50% haircut in 12 months, but for now you are exaggerating.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The market is still up 19% over the past 12 months. Nothing to sneeze at.

Agree. We are 7 years into a massive bull run with amazing gains. No one should be surprised if we see a correction in the near future. The rapid defecit increases in US defecits are a concern. Furthermore, fed rates have been at historic lows for an awfully long time. I think we should return those to "normalized" levels.

correction, the economy limped along while Obummer was in office, yes the market did ok but due to the economy limping along the gains are over the last year, up 21% before the last two days I believe since this time last year.

You do realize that the DJIA went up 25% in Obama's first year, right??

[cwtcr hokie]

correction, the economy limped along while Obummer was in office, yes the market did ok but due to the economy limping along the gains are over the last year, up 21% before the last two days I believe since this time last year.[/quote]

You do realize that the DJIA went up 25% in Obama's first year, right??[/quote]

The market was way way way down from the recession so it only had to go up, if it kept going down we would not be here today

[cwtcr hokie]

Agree. We are 7 years into a massive bull run with amazing gains. No one should be surprised if we see a correction in the near future. The rapid defecit increases in US defecits are a concern. Furthermore, fed rates have been at historic lows for an awfully long time. I think we should return those to "normalized" levels.[/quote]

correction, the economy limped along while Obummer was in office, yes the market did ok but due to the economy limping along the gains are over the last year, up 21% before the last two days I believe since this time last year.[/quote]

This is a fantastic post. The stock market is on a top-3 all time bull market run, calling it "OK" demonstrates your loose grip on the data you are speaking about. Job creation is also on a record long streak and has continued on the same really positive trend for Obama and Trump. There is no discontinuity to the trend line. Both guys have seen similar results, which are great for both. Unemployment is at lows not seen since the Clinton administration. As a non-partisan, I don't see how you look at job creation and find Obama or Trump to be different or superior to one another.[/quote]

so .7 gdp growth is really good? Obummer never got above 2 % GDP growth in his ENTIRE 8 years, but if you want to think he was great then so be it, the economy limped along in reality. you can now post how dumb I am as I am sure you are soooo much smarter than me.

[TheH2]

so .7 gdp growth is really good? Obummer never got above 2 % GDP growth in his ENTIRE 8 years, but if you want to think he was great then so be it, the economy limped along in reality. you can now post how dumb I am as I am sure you are soooo much smarter than me.

But he did - see below, from BEA.gov, and posted above.
GDP Growth:
2010: 2.5
2011: 1.6
2012: 2.2
2013: 1.7
2014: 2.6
2015: 2.9
2016: 1.5
2017: 2.3

[cwtcr hokie]

so .7 gdp growth is really good? Obummer never got above 2 % GDP growth in his ENTIRE 8 years, but if you want to think he was great then so be it, the economy limped along in reality. you can now post how dumb I am as I am sure you are soooo much smarter than me.

But he did - see below, from BEA.gov, and posted above.
GDP Growth:
2010: 2.5
2011: 1.6
2012: 2.2
2013: 1.7
2014: 2.6
2015: 2.9
2016: 1.5
2017: 2.3

you missed bolding one, yep awesome great job Obummer (funny, while he was in office I kept seeing articles about how our growth was lacking and we were limping along....I guess those economist were as dumb as me) who knew?

[TheH2]

so .7 gdp growth is really good? Obummer never got above 2 % GDP growth in his ENTIRE 8 years, but if you want to think he was great then so be it, the economy limped along in reality. you can now post how dumb I am as I am sure you are soooo much smarter than me.

But he did - see below, from BEA.gov, and posted above.
GDP Growth:
2010: 2.5
2011: 1.6
2012: 2.2
2013: 1.7
2014: 2.6
2015: 2.9
2016: 1.5
2017: 2.3

you missed bolding one, yep awesome great job Obummer (funny, while he was in office I kept seeing articles about how our growth was lacking and we were limping along....I guess those economist were as dumb as me) who knew?

I'm pretty sure I bolded every year where GDP was >= 2% under Obama.

Well, if you are reading articles from the same sources that are now talking about how great GDP growth is, you may want to start reading new sources, or at the very least supplement it with different sources. There are a lot of "economists" some are better than others.

Coming out of a banking led recession growth is lower. In fact, the U.S. returned to pre-recession GDP much faster than would be expected historically. You shouldn't have ignored my posts for the last 8 years .

3% is the new good. 2.0 - 3.0 is the new normal.

[ip_law-hokie]

so .7 gdp growth is really good? Obummer never got above 2 % GDP growth in his ENTIRE 8 years, but if you want to think he was great then so be it, the economy limped along in reality. you can now post how dumb I am as I am sure you are soooo much smarter than me.

But he did - see below, from BEA.gov, and posted above.
GDP Growth:
2010: 2.5
2011: 1.6
2012: 2.2
2013: 1.7
2014: 2.6
2015: 2.9
2016: 1.5
2017: 2.3

you missed bolding one, yep awesome great job Obummer (funny, while he was in office I kept seeing articles about how our growth was lacking and we were limping along....I guess those economist were as dumb as me) who knew?

I thought we all agreed that the stock market is not a good benchmark to measure the effectiveness of a president.


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[HokieFanDC]

correction, the economy limped along while Obummer was in office, yes the market did ok but due to the economy limping along the gains are over the last year, up 21% before the last two days I believe since this time last year.

You do realize that the DJIA went up 25% in Obama's first year, right??[/quote]

The market was way way way down from the recession so it only had to go up, if it kept going down we would not be here today[/quote]

Yep, it was way, way down, and on a really bad trend. The DJIA had fallen 30%+ in the year before he took office. Terrific that it was turned around so fast, no?
And the DJIA increased 18% the year before Trump took office. So, the stock market was already cruising.
Just saying that continuing a longstanding trend is a good thing, but not an amazing accomplishment.