Bowl wars and "who should I root for this weekend"?

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BigDave
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Bowl wars and "who should I root for this weekend"?

Post by BigDave »

As most on here probably know, if there are not enough bowl eligible (6-6) teams to fill all of the bowl slots, then teams become eligible in APR order. Beamer does things the right way and so our APR is very very high. Of the contenders for a 5-7 slot, only Nebraska, RUTSgers, and Vandy have a higher APR than we do ... Indiana and Washington have the same APR that we do.

RUTSgers (4-7) is also ahead of us and would get a slot if they beat Maryland. Oddly, Maryland is a 1-point favorite. I would have thought sure RUTSgers would be a heavy favorite.

Vanderbilt (4-7) is also ahead of us and could also jump us if they win at Tennessee where they are a 16.5-point underdog.

Indiana (5-6) and Washington (5-6) both have the same APR as us. I'm betting that the idea of Beamer's last game would break that particular tie.

I suppose it's also distinctly possible that which conference has bowl slots available would enter into it. The ACC has 8 bowl eligible teams and at least nine bowl slots (10 if Clemson goes to the playoff, and up to 12 including secondary agreements if someone cannot fill their slots. So the bottom line is that regardless of anything else, there will be an ACC bowl wanting to take an ACC team if they can. The PAC 12 only has seven tie-ins (eight if they get a team into the playoffs) and they already have more teams eligible than they have slots. So that's a good thing - there won't be a PAC 12 bowl wanting to take an extra PAC 12 team. The Big 10, on the other hand, has more slots than they could hope to fill, although it's a bit muddy because some of them are conditional slots. So it's possible that you could have an argument between a Big 10 bowl and an ACC bowl with both of them wanting their 5-7 team and neither of them wanting to get stuck with some 6-6 RUTS Belt team. I have no idea how that would work, but again, I'm hoping Beamer's last game would win that one.

Indiana's only remaining game is vs cupcake Purdue meaning they probably get to 6-6 anyway making all of the above moot for them ... Washington plays Washington State, which is more of a tossup.

The few other teams ahead of us in the APR are all either eligible already or not able to get to 5 wins.

There are 20 teams (including us) who can get to bowl eligibility, plus Rutgers and Vanderbilt, who can get to 5-7 ahead of us. We are all competing for 9 slots.

The great news is that nearly everyone competing for a bowl slot is an underdog. Here are those teams in order of likelihood of getting to 6-6. Nebraska doesn't matter and of the other 19 teams, we need to win OR no more than seven others from this list can win:

Indiana (-7 @ Purdue) - Sat 12:00 BTN (online only for most of the ACC - we will get Rutgers-UMD)
Buffalo (-7 vs UMass) - Fri 4:30 ESPNU
Tulsa (-6 @ Tulane) - Fri 8:00 ESPNU
VT (-3.5 @ UVA-C) - Sat 12:00 ESPNU
Washington (off vs WSU) - Fri 3:30 Fox broadcast
ECU (+1 vs Cincy) - Sat 12:00 CBSSN
Rutgers (+1 vs Maryland) - Sat 12:00 BTN
Minnesota (+2.5 vs Wisconsin) - Sat 3:30 BTN
Nebraska (+2.5 vs Iowa) - Fri 3:30 ABC - doesn't matter, they are ahead of us anyway
Illinois (+3.5 vs Northwestern) - Sat 3:30 ESPNU
Kentucky (+4 vs Loserville) - Sat 12:00 SECN
ODU (+4 vs FAU) - Sat 12:00 ASN
SJSU (+7.5 vs Boise St) - Fri 3:30 CBSSN
Georgia State (4-6, needs to win -1 vs Troy and @Georgia Southern) - Fri 2:00 ESPN3
Missouri (+15 @ Arkansas) - Fri 2:30 CBS
Vanderbilt (+16.5 @Tennessee) - Sat 4:00 SECN
Kansas State (4-6, needs to win -20 @Kansas and against WVU at home) - Sat 4:00 FS1
Texas (4-6, needs to win -2 vs TTU and @Baylor, which is not happening) - Thu 7:30 FS1
South Alabama (5-5, needs to win one of +21 @ Georgia Southern, and vs App St) - Sat 2:00 ESPN3
ULL (4-6, needs to win +21 at App St, as well as Troy) - Sat 2:00 ESPN3
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